3 skills found
epinowcast / EpinowcastA modular Bayesian framework for real-time infectious disease surveillance. Provides tools for nowcasting, reproduction number estimation, delay estimation, and forecasting from data subject to reporting delays, right-truncation, missing data, and incomplete ascertainment
miemieyanga / PandemicLLMCode and Data for Advancing real-time infectious disease forecasting using large language models
1057499672 / Globalized Stochastic Meta Population SEIR ModelThe COVID-19 (COVID-19) epidemic has entered the era of globalization. As of September in 2020, 25.84 million people have been diagnosed globally. In order to help public health decision-makers improve their decision-making effectiveness, timeliness, and accuracy. Epidemic trajectory prediction and policy intervention simulation are useful tools, especially when vaccines are not yet available globally. SEIR model is a mainstream and developing dynamics model of infectious diseases, embodying the idea of differential, able to predict the future outbreak scenario based on initial data. This study further develops the traditional SEIR model by integrating human mobility and non-pharmaceutical interventions into the model. This model has four objectives: 1. Evaluate the effect of Wuhan shutdown policy (such as how much R0 has been reduced and how many cases have been avoided) 2. Assess the effectiveness of epidemic intervention policies in Wuhan, China, and western countries after the Wuhan shutdown 3. Evaluate the effects of non-drug interventions (such as inter-city travel restrictions, international travel ban, suspected-cases isolation and social-distance control) 4. Forecast the future trajectory of the epidemic in each region This model is significantly different from the traditional SEIR model in the following three aspects: 1. Allow people infected in the incubation period and those with symptoms to spread across regions (the scale of population migration is based on baidu migration platform and national transport database). In terms of regional scope, this paper covers 31 provinces in China and 13 western countries with severe epidemics. 2. Allow different levels of government policy intervention, including isolation, social distance control, and border closure. 3. Parameters such as basic infection number R0 are allowed to change with time. Therefore, the "global SEIR model", to some extent, avoids the staticity of the traditional SEIR model, simulating the real social environment better. This model can help public health event decision makers to make decisions, including the following three points: 1. In the early stage of the outbreak, it can assist decision makers to quickly make the most economic and effective policy intervention decisions, so as to control the development of the epidemic as soon as possible. 2. In the middle stage of epidemic development, decision-makers can be assisted to evaluate the effectiveness of initial intervention policies, so as to dynamically optimize and adjust policies based on feedback. 3. In the later stage of the epidemic, it can assist decision makers to assess the possibility of imported cases from abroad. Given the high variability of COVID-19 virus, the fact that vaccines are not yet globally available, and global medical resources are far away from adequate, it is necessary for policy makers in all countries to build a globalized SEIR model that integrated as many nations and regions as possible.
