65 skills found · Page 1 of 3
just-krivi / Option Pricing ModelsSimple python/streamlit web app for European option pricing using Black-Scholes model, Monte Carlo simulation and Binomial model. Spot prices for the underlying are fetched from Yahoo Finance API.
sayantann11 / All Classification Templetes For MLClassification - Machine Learning This is ‘Classification’ tutorial which is a part of the Machine Learning course offered by Simplilearn. We will learn Classification algorithms, types of classification algorithms, support vector machines(SVM), Naive Bayes, Decision Tree and Random Forest Classifier in this tutorial. Objectives Let us look at some of the objectives covered under this section of Machine Learning tutorial. Define Classification and list its algorithms Describe Logistic Regression and Sigmoid Probability Explain K-Nearest Neighbors and KNN classification Understand Support Vector Machines, Polynomial Kernel, and Kernel Trick Analyze Kernel Support Vector Machines with an example Implement the Naïve Bayes Classifier Demonstrate Decision Tree Classifier Describe Random Forest Classifier Classification: Meaning Classification is a type of supervised learning. It specifies the class to which data elements belong to and is best used when the output has finite and discrete values. It predicts a class for an input variable as well. There are 2 types of Classification: Binomial Multi-Class Classification: Use Cases Some of the key areas where classification cases are being used: To find whether an email received is a spam or ham To identify customer segments To find if a bank loan is granted To identify if a kid will pass or fail in an examination Classification: Example Social media sentiment analysis has two potential outcomes, positive or negative, as displayed by the chart given below. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/classification-example-machine-learning.JPG This chart shows the classification of the Iris flower dataset into its three sub-species indicated by codes 0, 1, and 2. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/iris-flower-dataset-graph.JPG The test set dots represent the assignment of new test data points to one class or the other based on the trained classifier model. Types of Classification Algorithms Let’s have a quick look into the types of Classification Algorithm below. Linear Models Logistic Regression Support Vector Machines Nonlinear models K-nearest Neighbors (KNN) Kernel Support Vector Machines (SVM) Naïve Bayes Decision Tree Classification Random Forest Classification Logistic Regression: Meaning Let us understand the Logistic Regression model below. This refers to a regression model that is used for classification. This method is widely used for binary classification problems. It can also be extended to multi-class classification problems. Here, the dependent variable is categorical: y ϵ {0, 1} A binary dependent variable can have only two values, like 0 or 1, win or lose, pass or fail, healthy or sick, etc In this case, you model the probability distribution of output y as 1 or 0. This is called the sigmoid probability (σ). If σ(θ Tx) > 0.5, set y = 1, else set y = 0 Unlike Linear Regression (and its Normal Equation solution), there is no closed form solution for finding optimal weights of Logistic Regression. Instead, you must solve this with maximum likelihood estimation (a probability model to detect the maximum likelihood of something happening). It can be used to calculate the probability of a given outcome in a binary model, like the probability of being classified as sick or passing an exam. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/logistic-regression-example-graph.JPG Sigmoid Probability The probability in the logistic regression is often represented by the Sigmoid function (also called the logistic function or the S-curve): https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/sigmoid-function-machine-learning.JPG In this equation, t represents data values * the number of hours studied and S(t) represents the probability of passing the exam. Assume sigmoid function: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/sigmoid-probability-machine-learning.JPG g(z) tends toward 1 as z -> infinity , and g(z) tends toward 0 as z -> infinity K-nearest Neighbors (KNN) K-nearest Neighbors algorithm is used to assign a data point to clusters based on similarity measurement. It uses a supervised method for classification. The steps to writing a k-means algorithm are as given below: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/knn-distribution-graph-machine-learning.JPG Choose the number of k and a distance metric. (k = 5 is common) Find k-nearest neighbors of the sample that you want to classify Assign the class label by majority vote. KNN Classification A new input point is classified in the category such that it has the most number of neighbors from that category. For example: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/knn-classification-machine-learning.JPG Classify a patient as high risk or low risk. Mark email as spam or ham. Keen on learning about Classification Algorithms in Machine Learning? Click here! Support Vector Machine (SVM) Let us understand Support Vector Machine (SVM) in detail below. SVMs are classification algorithms used to assign data to various classes. They involve detecting hyperplanes which segregate data into classes. SVMs are very versatile and are also capable of performing linear or nonlinear classification, regression, and outlier detection. Once ideal hyperplanes are discovered, new data points can be easily classified. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/support-vector-machines-graph-machine-learning.JPG The optimization objective is to find “maximum margin hyperplane” that is farthest from the closest points in the two classes (these points are called support vectors). In the given figure, the middle line represents the hyperplane. SVM Example Let’s look at this image below and have an idea about SVM in general. Hyperplanes with larger margins have lower generalization error. The positive and negative hyperplanes are represented by: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/positive-negative-hyperplanes-machine-learning.JPG Classification of any new input sample xtest : If w0 + wTxtest > 1, the sample xtest is said to be in the class toward the right of the positive hyperplane. If w0 + wTxtest < -1, the sample xtest is said to be in the class toward the left of the negative hyperplane. When you subtract the two equations, you get: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/equation-subtraction-machine-learning.JPG Length of vector w is (L2 norm length): https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/length-of-vector-machine-learning.JPG You normalize with the length of w to arrive at: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/normalize-equation-machine-learning.JPG SVM: Hard Margin Classification Given below are some points to understand Hard Margin Classification. The left side of equation SVM-1 given above can be interpreted as the distance between the positive (+ve) and negative (-ve) hyperplanes; in other words, it is the margin that can be maximized. Hence the objective of the function is to maximize with the constraint that the samples are classified correctly, which is represented as : https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/hard-margin-classification-machine-learning.JPG This means that you are minimizing ‖w‖. This also means that all positive samples are on one side of the positive hyperplane and all negative samples are on the other side of the negative hyperplane. This can be written concisely as : https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/hard-margin-classification-formula.JPG Minimizing ‖w‖ is the same as minimizing. This figure is better as it is differentiable even at w = 0. The approach listed above is called “hard margin linear SVM classifier.” SVM: Soft Margin Classification Given below are some points to understand Soft Margin Classification. To allow for linear constraints to be relaxed for nonlinearly separable data, a slack variable is introduced. (i) measures how much ith instance is allowed to violate the margin. The slack variable is simply added to the linear constraints. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/soft-margin-calculation-machine-learning.JPG Subject to the above constraints, the new objective to be minimized becomes: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/soft-margin-calculation-formula.JPG You have two conflicting objectives now—minimizing slack variable to reduce margin violations and minimizing to increase the margin. The hyperparameter C allows us to define this trade-off. Large values of C correspond to larger error penalties (so smaller margins), whereas smaller values of C allow for higher misclassification errors and larger margins. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/machine-learning-certification-video-preview.jpg SVM: Regularization The concept of C is the reverse of regularization. Higher C means lower regularization, which increases bias and lowers the variance (causing overfitting). https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/concept-of-c-graph-machine-learning.JPG IRIS Data Set The Iris dataset contains measurements of 150 IRIS flowers from three different species: Setosa Versicolor Viriginica Each row represents one sample. Flower measurements in centimeters are stored as columns. These are called features. IRIS Data Set: SVM Let’s train an SVM model using sci-kit-learn for the Iris dataset: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/svm-model-graph-machine-learning.JPG Nonlinear SVM Classification There are two ways to solve nonlinear SVMs: by adding polynomial features by adding similarity features Polynomial features can be added to datasets; in some cases, this can create a linearly separable dataset. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/nonlinear-classification-svm-machine-learning.JPG In the figure on the left, there is only 1 feature x1. This dataset is not linearly separable. If you add x2 = (x1)2 (figure on the right), the data becomes linearly separable. Polynomial Kernel In sci-kit-learn, one can use a Pipeline class for creating polynomial features. Classification results for the Moons dataset are shown in the figure. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/polynomial-kernel-machine-learning.JPG Polynomial Kernel with Kernel Trick Let us look at the image below and understand Kernel Trick in detail. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/polynomial-kernel-with-kernel-trick.JPG For large dimensional datasets, adding too many polynomial features can slow down the model. You can apply a kernel trick with the effect of polynomial features without actually adding them. The code is shown (SVC class) below trains an SVM classifier using a 3rd-degree polynomial kernel but with a kernel trick. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/polynomial-kernel-equation-machine-learning.JPG The hyperparameter coefθ controls the influence of high-degree polynomials. Kernel SVM Let us understand in detail about Kernel SVM. Kernel SVMs are used for classification of nonlinear data. In the chart, nonlinear data is projected into a higher dimensional space via a mapping function where it becomes linearly separable. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/kernel-svm-machine-learning.JPG In the higher dimension, a linear separating hyperplane can be derived and used for classification. A reverse projection of the higher dimension back to original feature space takes it back to nonlinear shape. As mentioned previously, SVMs can be kernelized to solve nonlinear classification problems. You can create a sample dataset for XOR gate (nonlinear problem) from NumPy. 100 samples will be assigned the class sample 1, and 100 samples will be assigned the class label -1. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/kernel-svm-graph-machine-learning.JPG As you can see, this data is not linearly separable. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/kernel-svm-non-separable.JPG You now use the kernel trick to classify XOR dataset created earlier. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/kernel-svm-xor-machine-learning.JPG Naïve Bayes Classifier What is Naive Bayes Classifier? Have you ever wondered how your mail provider implements spam filtering or how online news channels perform news text classification or even how companies perform sentiment analysis of their audience on social media? All of this and more are done through a machine learning algorithm called Naive Bayes Classifier. Naive Bayes Named after Thomas Bayes from the 1700s who first coined this in the Western literature. Naive Bayes classifier works on the principle of conditional probability as given by the Bayes theorem. Advantages of Naive Bayes Classifier Listed below are six benefits of Naive Bayes Classifier. Very simple and easy to implement Needs less training data Handles both continuous and discrete data Highly scalable with the number of predictors and data points As it is fast, it can be used in real-time predictions Not sensitive to irrelevant features Bayes Theorem We will understand Bayes Theorem in detail from the points mentioned below. According to the Bayes model, the conditional probability P(Y|X) can be calculated as: P(Y|X) = P(X|Y)P(Y) / P(X) This means you have to estimate a very large number of P(X|Y) probabilities for a relatively small vector space X. For example, for a Boolean Y and 30 possible Boolean attributes in the X vector, you will have to estimate 3 billion probabilities P(X|Y). To make it practical, a Naïve Bayes classifier is used, which assumes conditional independence of P(X) to each other, with a given value of Y. This reduces the number of probability estimates to 2*30=60 in the above example. Naïve Bayes Classifier for SMS Spam Detection Consider a labeled SMS database having 5574 messages. It has messages as given below: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/naive-bayes-spam-machine-learning.JPG Each message is marked as spam or ham in the data set. Let’s train a model with Naïve Bayes algorithm to detect spam from ham. The message lengths and their frequency (in the training dataset) are as shown below: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/naive-bayes-spam-spam-detection.JPG Analyze the logic you use to train an algorithm to detect spam: Split each message into individual words/tokens (bag of words). Lemmatize the data (each word takes its base form, like “walking” or “walked” is replaced with “walk”). Convert data to vectors using scikit-learn module CountVectorizer. Run TFIDF to remove common words like “is,” “are,” “and.” Now apply scikit-learn module for Naïve Bayes MultinomialNB to get the Spam Detector. This spam detector can then be used to classify a random new message as spam or ham. Next, the accuracy of the spam detector is checked using the Confusion Matrix. For the SMS spam example above, the confusion matrix is shown on the right. Accuracy Rate = Correct / Total = (4827 + 592)/5574 = 97.21% Error Rate = Wrong / Total = (155 + 0)/5574 = 2.78% https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/confusion-matrix-machine-learning.JPG Although confusion Matrix is useful, some more precise metrics are provided by Precision and Recall. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/precision-recall-matrix-machine-learning.JPG Precision refers to the accuracy of positive predictions. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/precision-formula-machine-learning.JPG Recall refers to the ratio of positive instances that are correctly detected by the classifier (also known as True positive rate or TPR). https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/recall-formula-machine-learning.JPG Precision/Recall Trade-off To detect age-appropriate videos for kids, you need high precision (low recall) to ensure that only safe videos make the cut (even though a few safe videos may be left out). The high recall is needed (low precision is acceptable) in-store surveillance to catch shoplifters; a few false alarms are acceptable, but all shoplifters must be caught. Learn about Naive Bayes in detail. Click here! Decision Tree Classifier Some aspects of the Decision Tree Classifier mentioned below are. Decision Trees (DT) can be used both for classification and regression. The advantage of decision trees is that they require very little data preparation. They do not require feature scaling or centering at all. They are also the fundamental components of Random Forests, one of the most powerful ML algorithms. Unlike Random Forests and Neural Networks (which do black-box modeling), Decision Trees are white box models, which means that inner workings of these models are clearly understood. In the case of classification, the data is segregated based on a series of questions. Any new data point is assigned to the selected leaf node. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/decision-tree-classifier-machine-learning.JPG Start at the tree root and split the data on the feature using the decision algorithm, resulting in the largest information gain (IG). This splitting procedure is then repeated in an iterative process at each child node until the leaves are pure. This means that the samples at each node belonging to the same class. In practice, you can set a limit on the depth of the tree to prevent overfitting. The purity is compromised here as the final leaves may still have some impurity. The figure shows the classification of the Iris dataset. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/decision-tree-classifier-graph.JPG IRIS Decision Tree Let’s build a Decision Tree using scikit-learn for the Iris flower dataset and also visualize it using export_graphviz API. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/iris-decision-tree-machine-learning.JPG The output of export_graphviz can be converted into png format: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/iris-decision-tree-output.JPG Sample attribute stands for the number of training instances the node applies to. Value attribute stands for the number of training instances of each class the node applies to. Gini impurity measures the node’s impurity. A node is “pure” (gini=0) if all training instances it applies to belong to the same class. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/impurity-formula-machine-learning.JPG For example, for Versicolor (green color node), the Gini is 1-(0/54)2 -(49/54)2 -(5/54) 2 ≈ 0.168 https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/iris-decision-tree-sample.JPG Decision Boundaries Let us learn to create decision boundaries below. For the first node (depth 0), the solid line splits the data (Iris-Setosa on left). Gini is 0 for Setosa node, so no further split is possible. The second node (depth 1) splits the data into Versicolor and Virginica. If max_depth were set as 3, a third split would happen (vertical dotted line). https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/decision-tree-boundaries.JPG For a sample with petal length 5 cm and petal width 1.5 cm, the tree traverses to depth 2 left node, so the probability predictions for this sample are 0% for Iris-Setosa (0/54), 90.7% for Iris-Versicolor (49/54), and 9.3% for Iris-Virginica (5/54) CART Training Algorithm Scikit-learn uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm to train Decision Trees. CART algorithm: Split the data into two subsets using a single feature k and threshold tk (example, petal length < “2.45 cm”). This is done recursively for each node. k and tk are chosen such that they produce the purest subsets (weighted by their size). The objective is to minimize the cost function as given below: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/cart-training-algorithm-machine-learning.JPG The algorithm stops executing if one of the following situations occurs: max_depth is reached No further splits are found for each node Other hyperparameters may be used to stop the tree: min_samples_split min_samples_leaf min_weight_fraction_leaf max_leaf_nodes Gini Impurity or Entropy Entropy is one more measure of impurity and can be used in place of Gini. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/gini-impurity-entrophy.JPG It is a degree of uncertainty, and Information Gain is the reduction that occurs in entropy as one traverses down the tree. Entropy is zero for a DT node when the node contains instances of only one class. Entropy for depth 2 left node in the example given above is: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/entrophy-for-depth-2.JPG Gini and Entropy both lead to similar trees. DT: Regularization The following figure shows two decision trees on the moons dataset. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/dt-regularization-machine-learning.JPG The decision tree on the right is restricted by min_samples_leaf = 4. The model on the left is overfitting, while the model on the right generalizes better. Random Forest Classifier Let us have an understanding of Random Forest Classifier below. A random forest can be considered an ensemble of decision trees (Ensemble learning). Random Forest algorithm: Draw a random bootstrap sample of size n (randomly choose n samples from the training set). Grow a decision tree from the bootstrap sample. At each node, randomly select d features. Split the node using the feature that provides the best split according to the objective function, for instance by maximizing the information gain. Repeat the steps 1 to 2 k times. (k is the number of trees you want to create, using a subset of samples) Aggregate the prediction by each tree for a new data point to assign the class label by majority vote (pick the group selected by the most number of trees and assign new data point to that group). Random Forests are opaque, which means it is difficult to visualize their inner workings. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/random-forest-classifier-graph.JPG However, the advantages outweigh their limitations since you do not have to worry about hyperparameters except k, which stands for the number of decision trees to be created from a subset of samples. RF is quite robust to noise from the individual decision trees. Hence, you need not prune individual decision trees. The larger the number of decision trees, the more accurate the Random Forest prediction is. (This, however, comes with higher computation cost). Key Takeaways Let us quickly run through what we have learned so far in this Classification tutorial. Classification algorithms are supervised learning methods to split data into classes. They can work on Linear Data as well as Nonlinear Data. Logistic Regression can classify data based on weighted parameters and sigmoid conversion to calculate the probability of classes. K-nearest Neighbors (KNN) algorithm uses similar features to classify data. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) classify data by detecting the maximum margin hyperplane between data classes. Naïve Bayes, a simplified Bayes Model, can help classify data using conditional probability models. Decision Trees are powerful classifiers and use tree splitting logic until pure or somewhat pure leaf node classes are attained. Random Forests apply Ensemble Learning to Decision Trees for more accurate classification predictions. Conclusion This completes ‘Classification’ tutorial. In the next tutorial, we will learn 'Unsupervised Learning with Clustering.'
satijalab / SctransformR package for modeling single cell UMI expression data using regularized negative binomial regression
YuChenAmberLu / Options CalculatorOption Calculator using Black-Scholes model and Binomial model
Robin-Guilliou / Option PricingOption pricing with various models (Black-Scholes, Heston, Merton jump diffusion, etc) and methods (Monte Carlo, finite difference, Fourier).
VivekPa / BinomialOptModelA python program to implement the discrete binomial option pricing model
pachterlab / EdgePythonedgePython is a Python implementation of the Bioconductor edgeR package for differential analysis of genomics count data. It also includes a new single-cell differential expression method that extends the NEBULA-LN negative binomial mixed model with edgeR's TMM normalization and empirical Bayes dispersion shrinkage.
LudvigOlsen / CvmsR Package: Cross-validate one or multiple gaussian or binomial regression models at once. Perform repeated cross-validation. Returns results in a tibble for easy comparison, reporting and further analysis.
nyiuab / NBZIMMNBZIMM (Negative Binomial and Zero-Inflated Mixed Models)
acerbilab / IbsInverse binomial sampling for efficient log-likelihood estimation of simulator models in MATLAB
pat-s / OddsratioSimplified odds ratio calculation of binomial GAM/GLM models
reddyprasade / Machine Learning Interview PreparationPrepare to Technical Skills Here are the essential skills that a Machine Learning Engineer needs, as mentioned Read me files. Within each group are topics that you should be familiar with. Study Tip: Copy and paste this list into a document and save to your computer for easy referral. Computer Science Fundamentals and Programming Topics Data structures: Lists, stacks, queues, strings, hash maps, vectors, matrices, classes & objects, trees, graphs, etc. Algorithms: Recursion, searching, sorting, optimization, dynamic programming, etc. Computability and complexity: P vs. NP, NP-complete problems, big-O notation, approximate algorithms, etc. Computer architecture: Memory, cache, bandwidth, threads & processes, deadlocks, etc. Probability and Statistics Topics Basic probability: Conditional probability, Bayes rule, likelihood, independence, etc. Probabilistic models: Bayes Nets, Markov Decision Processes, Hidden Markov Models, etc. Statistical measures: Mean, median, mode, variance, population parameters vs. sample statistics etc. Proximity and error metrics: Cosine similarity, mean-squared error, Manhattan and Euclidean distance, log-loss, etc. Distributions and random sampling: Uniform, normal, binomial, Poisson, etc. Analysis methods: ANOVA, hypothesis testing, factor analysis, etc. Data Modeling and Evaluation Topics Data preprocessing: Munging/wrangling, transforming, aggregating, etc. Pattern recognition: Correlations, clusters, trends, outliers & anomalies, etc. Dimensionality reduction: Eigenvectors, Principal Component Analysis, etc. Prediction: Classification, regression, sequence prediction, etc.; suitable error/accuracy metrics. Evaluation: Training-testing split, sequential vs. randomized cross-validation, etc. Applying Machine Learning Algorithms and Libraries Topics Models: Parametric vs. nonparametric, decision tree, nearest neighbor, neural net, support vector machine, ensemble of multiple models, etc. Learning procedure: Linear regression, gradient descent, genetic algorithms, bagging, boosting, and other model-specific methods; regularization, hyperparameter tuning, etc. Tradeoffs and gotchas: Relative advantages and disadvantages, bias and variance, overfitting and underfitting, vanishing/exploding gradients, missing data, data leakage, etc. Software Engineering and System Design Topics Software interface: Library calls, REST APIs, data collection endpoints, database queries, etc. User interface: Capturing user inputs & application events, displaying results & visualization, etc. Scalability: Map-reduce, distributed processing, etc. Deployment: Cloud hosting, containers & instances, microservices, etc. Move on to the final lesson of this course to find lots of sample practice questions for each topic!
uvhw / Bitcoin FoundationBitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System Satoshi Nakamoto satoshin@gmx.com www.bitcoin.org Abstract. A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution. Digital signatures provide part of the solution, but the main benefits are lost if a trusted third party is still required to prevent double-spending. We propose a solution to the double-spending problem using a peer-to-peer network. The network timestamps transactions by hashing them into an ongoing chain of hash-based proof-of-work, forming a record that cannot be changed without redoing the proof-of-work. The longest chain not only serves as proof of the sequence of events witnessed, but proof that it came from the largest pool of CPU power. As long as a majority of CPU power is controlled by nodes that are not cooperating to attack the network, they'll generate the longest chain and outpace attackers. The network itself requires minimal structure. Messages are broadcast on a best effort basis, and nodes can leave and rejoin the network at will, accepting the longest proof-of-work chain as proof of what happened while they were gone. 1. Introduction Commerce on the Internet has come to rely almost exclusively on financial institutions serving as trusted third parties to process electronic payments. While the system works well enough for most transactions, it still suffers from the inherent weaknesses of the trust based model. Completely non-reversible transactions are not really possible, since financial institutions cannot avoid mediating disputes. The cost of mediation increases transaction costs, limiting the minimum practical transaction size and cutting off the possibility for small casual transactions, and there is a broader cost in the loss of ability to make non-reversible payments for non- reversible services. With the possibility of reversal, the need for trust spreads. Merchants must be wary of their customers, hassling them for more information than they would otherwise need. A certain percentage of fraud is accepted as unavoidable. These costs and payment uncertainties can be avoided in person by using physical currency, but no mechanism exists to make payments over a communications channel without a trusted party. What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party. Transactions that are computationally impractical to reverse would protect sellers from fraud, and routine escrow mechanisms could easily be implemented to protect buyers. In this paper, we propose a solution to the double-spending problem using a peer-to-peer distributed timestamp server to generate computational proof of the chronological order of transactions. The system is secure as long as honest nodes collectively control more CPU power than any cooperating group of attacker nodes. 1 2. Transactions We define an electronic coin as a chain of digital signatures. Each owner transfers the coin to the next by digitally signing a hash of the previous transaction and the public key of the next owner and adding these to the end of the coin. A payee can verify the signatures to verify the chain of ownership. Transaction Hash Transaction Hash Transaction Hash Owner 1's Public Key Owner 2's Public Key Owner 3's Public Key Owner 0's Signature Owner 1's Signature The problem of course is the payee can't verify that one of the owners did not double-spend the coin. A common solution is to introduce a trusted central authority, or mint, that checks every transaction for double spending. After each transaction, the coin must be returned to the mint to issue a new coin, and only coins issued directly from the mint are trusted not to be double-spent. The problem with this solution is that the fate of the entire money system depends on the company running the mint, with every transaction having to go through them, just like a bank. We need a way for the payee to know that the previous owners did not sign any earlier transactions. For our purposes, the earliest transaction is the one that counts, so we don't care about later attempts to double-spend. The only way to confirm the absence of a transaction is to be aware of all transactions. In the mint based model, the mint was aware of all transactions and decided which arrived first. To accomplish this without a trusted party, transactions must be publicly announced [1], and we need a system for participants to agree on a single history of the order in which they were received. The payee needs proof that at the time of each transaction, the majority of nodes agreed it was the first received. 3. Timestamp Server The solution we propose begins with a timestamp server. A timestamp server works by taking a hash of a block of items to be timestamped and widely publishing the hash, such as in a newspaper or Usenet post [2-5]. The timestamp proves that the data must have existed at the time, obviously, in order to get into the hash. Each timestamp includes the previous timestamp in its hash, forming a chain, with each additional timestamp reinforcing the ones before it. Hash Hash Owner 2's Signature Owner 1's Private Key Owner 2's Private Key Owner 3's Private Key Block Item Item ... 2 Block Item Item ... Verify Verify Sign Sign 4. Proof-of-Work To implement a distributed timestamp server on a peer-to-peer basis, we will need to use a proof- of-work system similar to Adam Back's Hashcash [6], rather than newspaper or Usenet posts. The proof-of-work involves scanning for a value that when hashed, such as with SHA-256, the hash begins with a number of zero bits. The average work required is exponential in the number of zero bits required and can be verified by executing a single hash. For our timestamp network, we implement the proof-of-work by incrementing a nonce in the block until a value is found that gives the block's hash the required zero bits. Once the CPU effort has been expended to make it satisfy the proof-of-work, the block cannot be changed without redoing the work. As later blocks are chained after it, the work to change the block would include redoing all the blocks after it. The proof-of-work also solves the problem of determining representation in majority decision making. If the majority were based on one-IP-address-one-vote, it could be subverted by anyone able to allocate many IPs. Proof-of-work is essentially one-CPU-one-vote. The majority decision is represented by the longest chain, which has the greatest proof-of-work effort invested in it. If a majority of CPU power is controlled by honest nodes, the honest chain will grow the fastest and outpace any competing chains. To modify a past block, an attacker would have to redo the proof-of-work of the block and all blocks after it and then catch up with and surpass the work of the honest nodes. We will show later that the probability of a slower attacker catching up diminishes exponentially as subsequent blocks are added. To compensate for increasing hardware speed and varying interest in running nodes over time, the proof-of-work difficulty is determined by a moving average targeting an average number of blocks per hour. If they're generated too fast, the difficulty increases. 5. Network The steps to run the network are as follows: 1) New transactions are broadcast to all nodes. 2) Each node collects new transactions into a block. 3) Each node works on finding a difficult proof-of-work for its block. 4) When a node finds a proof-of-work, it broadcasts the block to all nodes. 5) Nodes accept the block only if all transactions in it are valid and not already spent. 6) Nodes express their acceptance of the block by working on creating the next block in the chain, using the hash of the accepted block as the previous hash. Nodes always consider the longest chain to be the correct one and will keep working on extending it. If two nodes broadcast different versions of the next block simultaneously, some nodes may receive one or the other first. In that case, they work on the first one they received, but save the other branch in case it becomes longer. The tie will be broken when the next proof- of-work is found and one branch becomes longer; the nodes that were working on the other branch will then switch to the longer one. 3 Block Nonce Tx Tx ... Block Nonce Tx Tx ... Prev Hash Prev Hash New transaction broadcasts do not necessarily need to reach all nodes. As long as they reach many nodes, they will get into a block before long. Block broadcasts are also tolerant of dropped messages. If a node does not receive a block, it will request it when it receives the next block and realizes it missed one. 6. Incentive By convention, the first transaction in a block is a special transaction that starts a new coin owned by the creator of the block. This adds an incentive for nodes to support the network, and provides a way to initially distribute coins into circulation, since there is no central authority to issue them. The steady addition of a constant of amount of new coins is analogous to gold miners expending resources to add gold to circulation. In our case, it is CPU time and electricity that is expended. The incentive can also be funded with transaction fees. If the output value of a transaction is less than its input value, the difference is a transaction fee that is added to the incentive value of the block containing the transaction. Once a predetermined number of coins have entered circulation, the incentive can transition entirely to transaction fees and be completely inflation free. The incentive may help encourage nodes to stay honest. If a greedy attacker is able to assemble more CPU power than all the honest nodes, he would have to choose between using it to defraud people by stealing back his payments, or using it to generate new coins. He ought to find it more profitable to play by the rules, such rules that favour him with more new coins than everyone else combined, than to undermine the system and the validity of his own wealth. 7. Reclaiming Disk Space Once the latest transaction in a coin is buried under enough blocks, the spent transactions before it can be discarded to save disk space. To facilitate this without breaking the block's hash, transactions are hashed in a Merkle Tree [7][2][5], with only the root included in the block's hash. Old blocks can then be compacted by stubbing off branches of the tree. The interior hashes do not need to be stored. Block Hash0 Hash1 Hash2 Hash3 Tx0 Tx1 Tx2 Tx3 Block Header (Block Hash) Prev Hash Nonce Root Hash Hash01 Hash23 Block Block Header (Block Hash) Prev Hash Nonce Root Hash Hash01 Hash23 Hash2 Hash3 Tx3 Transactions Hashed in a Merkle Tree After Pruning Tx0-2 from the Block A block header with no transactions would be about 80 bytes. If we suppose blocks are generated every 10 minutes, 80 bytes * 6 * 24 * 365 = 4.2MB per year. With computer systems typically selling with 2GB of RAM as of 2008, and Moore's Law predicting current growth of 1.2GB per year, storage should not be a problem even if the block headers must be kept in memory. 4 8. Simplified Payment Verification It is possible to verify payments without running a full network node. A user only needs to keep a copy of the block headers of the longest proof-of-work chain, which he can get by querying network nodes until he's convinced he has the longest chain, and obtain the Merkle branch linking the transaction to the block it's timestamped in. He can't check the transaction for himself, but by linking it to a place in the chain, he can see that a network node has accepted it, and blocks added after it further confirm the network has accepted it. Longest Proof-of-Work Chain Block Header Block Header Block Header Prev Hash Nonce Prev Hash Nonce Prev Hash Nonce Merkle Root Merkle Root Merkle Root Hash01 Hash23 Merkle Branch for Tx3 Hash2 Hash3 Tx3 As such, the verification is reliable as long as honest nodes control the network, but is more vulnerable if the network is overpowered by an attacker. While network nodes can verify transactions for themselves, the simplified method can be fooled by an attacker's fabricated transactions for as long as the attacker can continue to overpower the network. One strategy to protect against this would be to accept alerts from network nodes when they detect an invalid block, prompting the user's software to download the full block and alerted transactions to confirm the inconsistency. Businesses that receive frequent payments will probably still want to run their own nodes for more independent security and quicker verification. 9. Combining and Splitting Value Although it would be possible to handle coins individually, it would be unwieldy to make a separate transaction for every cent in a transfer. To allow value to be split and combined, transactions contain multiple inputs and outputs. Normally there will be either a single input from a larger previous transaction or multiple inputs combining smaller amounts, and at most two outputs: one for the payment, and one returning the change, if any, back to the sender. It should be noted that fan-out, where a transaction depends on several transactions, and those transactions depend on many more, is not a problem here. There is never the need to extract a complete standalone copy of a transaction's history. 5 Transaction In Out In ... ... 10. Privacy The traditional banking model achieves a level of privacy by limiting access to information to the parties involved and the trusted third party. The necessity to announce all transactions publicly precludes this method, but privacy can still be maintained by breaking the flow of information in another place: by keeping public keys anonymous. The public can see that someone is sending an amount to someone else, but without information linking the transaction to anyone. This is similar to the level of information released by stock exchanges, where the time and size of individual trades, the "tape", is made public, but without telling who the parties were. Traditional Privacy Model Identities Transactions New Privacy Model Identities Transactions As an additional firewall, a new key pair should be used for each transaction to keep them from being linked to a common owner. Some linking is still unavoidable with multi-input transactions, which necessarily reveal that their inputs were owned by the same owner. The risk is that if the owner of a key is revealed, linking could reveal other transactions that belonged to the same owner. 11. Calculations We consider the scenario of an attacker trying to generate an alternate chain faster than the honest chain. Even if this is accomplished, it does not throw the system open to arbitrary changes, such as creating value out of thin air or taking money that never belonged to the attacker. Nodes are not going to accept an invalid transaction as payment, and honest nodes will never accept a block containing them. An attacker can only try to change one of his own transactions to take back money he recently spent. The race between the honest chain and an attacker chain can be characterized as a Binomial Random Walk. The success event is the honest chain being extended by one block, increasing its lead by +1, and the failure event is the attacker's chain being extended by one block, reducing the gap by -1. The probability of an attacker catching up from a given deficit is analogous to a Gambler's Ruin problem. Suppose a gambler with unlimited credit starts at a deficit and plays potentially an infinite number of trials to try to reach breakeven. We can calculate the probability he ever reaches breakeven, or that an attacker ever catches up with the honest chain, as follows [8]: p = probability an honest node finds the next block q = probability the attacker finds the next block qz = probability the attacker will ever catch up from z blocks behind Trusted Third Party q ={ 1 if p≤q} z q/pz if pq 6 Counterparty Public Public Given our assumption that p > q, the probability drops exponentially as the number of blocks the attacker has to catch up with increases. With the odds against him, if he doesn't make a lucky lunge forward early on, his chances become vanishingly small as he falls further behind. We now consider how long the recipient of a new transaction needs to wait before being sufficiently certain the sender can't change the transaction. We assume the sender is an attacker who wants to make the recipient believe he paid him for a while, then switch it to pay back to himself after some time has passed. The receiver will be alerted when that happens, but the sender hopes it will be too late. The receiver generates a new key pair and gives the public key to the sender shortly before signing. This prevents the sender from preparing a chain of blocks ahead of time by working on it continuously until he is lucky enough to get far enough ahead, then executing the transaction at that moment. Once the transaction is sent, the dishonest sender starts working in secret on a parallel chain containing an alternate version of his transaction. The recipient waits until the transaction has been added to a block and z blocks have been linked after it. He doesn't know the exact amount of progress the attacker has made, but assuming the honest blocks took the average expected time per block, the attacker's potential progress will be a Poisson distribution with expected value: = z qp To get the probability the attacker could still catch up now, we multiply the Poisson density for each amount of progress he could have made by the probability he could catch up from that point: ∞ ke−{q/pz−k ifk≤z} ∑k=0 k!⋅ 1 ifkz Rearranging to avoid summing the infinite tail of the distribution... z ke− z−k 1−∑k=0 k! 1−q/p Converting to C code... #include <math.h> double AttackerSuccessProbability(double q, int z) { double p = 1.0 - q; double lambda = z * (q / p); double sum = 1.0; int i, k; for (k = 0; k <= z; k++) { double poisson = exp(-lambda); for (i = 1; i <= k; i++) poisson *= lambda / i; sum -= poisson * (1 - pow(q / p, z - k)); } return sum; } 7 Running some results, we can see the probability drop off exponentially with z. q=0.1 z=0 P=1.0000000 z=1 P=0.2045873 z=2 P=0.0509779 z=3 P=0.0131722 z=4 P=0.0034552 z=5 P=0.0009137 z=6 P=0.0002428 z=7 P=0.0000647 z=8 P=0.0000173 z=9 P=0.0000046 z=10 P=0.0000012 q=0.3 z=0 P=1.0000000 z=5 P=0.1773523 z=10 P=0.0416605 z=15 P=0.0101008 z=20 P=0.0024804 z=25 P=0.0006132 z=30 P=0.0001522 z=35 P=0.0000379 z=40 P=0.0000095 z=45 P=0.0000024 z=50 P=0.0000006 Solving for P less than 0.1%... P < 0.001 q=0.10 z=5 q=0.15 z=8 q=0.20 z=11 q=0.25 z=15 q=0.30 z=24 q=0.35 z=41 q=0.40 z=89 q=0.45 z=340 12. Conclusion We have proposed a system for electronic transactions without relying on trust. We started with the usual framework of coins made from digital signatures, which provides strong control of ownership, but is incomplete without a way to prevent double-spending. To solve this, we proposed a peer-to-peer network using proof-of-work to record a public history of transactions that quickly becomes computationally impractical for an attacker to change if honest nodes control a majority of CPU power. The network is robust in its unstructured simplicity. Nodes work all at once with little coordination. They do not need to be identified, since messages are not routed to any particular place and only need to be delivered on a best effort basis. Nodes can leave and rejoin the network at will, accepting the proof-of-work chain as proof of what happened while they were gone. They vote with their CPU power, expressing their acceptance of valid blocks by working on extending them and rejecting invalid blocks by refusing to work on them. Any needed rules and incentives can be enforced with this consensus mechanism. 8 References [1] W. Dai, "b-money," http://www.weidai.com/bmoney.txt, 1998. [2] H. Massias, X.S. Avila, and J.-J. Quisquater, "Design of a secure timestamping service with minimal trust requirements," In 20th Symposium on Information Theory in the Benelux, May 1999. [3] S. Haber, W.S. Stornetta, "How to time-stamp a digital document," In Journal of Cryptology, vol 3, no 2, pages 99-111, 1991. [4] D. Bayer, S. Haber, W.S. Stornetta, "Improving the efficiency and reliability of digital time-stamping," In Sequences II: Methods in Communication, Security and Computer Science, pages 329-334, 1993. [5] S. Haber, W.S. Stornetta, "Secure names for bit-strings," In Proceedings of the 4th ACM Conference on Computer and Communications Security, pages 28-35, April 1997. [6] A. Back, "Hashcash - a denial of service counter-measure," http://www.hashcash.org/papers/hashcash.pdf, 2002. [7] R.C. Merkle, "Protocols for public key cryptosystems," In Proc. 1980 Symposium on Security and Privacy, IEEE Computer Society, pages 122-133, April 1980. [8] W. Feller, "An introduction to probability theory and its applications," 1957. 9
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