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EdgeTerminal

Real-time cross-market arbitrage monitoring for prediction market traders.

Live Demo →

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v1.2 preview — EdgeTerminal × TruthLayer. Aggregating Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus, PredictIt, and Manifold into a single canonical probability per event with confidence, trend, and cross-venue disagreement scoring. This is the unified signal view shipping in v1.2 (in progress). The live demo currently runs v1.1 — Polymarket × Kalshi arb feed with historical P&L proof — documented below.

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EdgeTerminal continuously ingests prediction markets from Polymarket and Kalshi (with Metaculus, PredictIt, and Manifold arriving in v1.2), matches equivalent contracts across venues using a multi-tier pipeline (keyword similarity → FAISS embeddings → Claude LLM verification → entity extraction), and surfaces fee-adjusted arbitrage opportunities in a live streaming dashboard — with historical P&L proof that every detected opportunity was real.

Core value: When two prediction markets disagree on the same event, show the trader exactly where, by how much, and with what confidence — in real time, with a historical record that detected opportunities were real.

EdgeTerminal is a research and analysis tool, not financial advice. It surfaces price discrepancies and does not execute trades automatically. See the Disclaimer below.

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Why EdgeTerminal

Prediction market arbitrage is operationally fragile. Retail traders manually refresh Polymarket and Kalshi tabs and still miss the best windows.

The problem

• Contract wording varies — "Will Trump win?" vs "Trump to win 2024 presidential election" reference the same event with potentially different resolution criteria.
• Settlement sources differ — Two venues may resolve the same contract against different data sources or at different times.
• Liquidity is thin — Apparent arbs can vanish the moment you try to fill both sides.
• Pricing models differ — Polymarket uses AMM + CLOB hybrid; Kalshi is pure CLOB with different tick sizes and fee structures.
• False positives destroy trust — Showing a "10% arb" that isn't real is worse than missing a real one.

What EdgeTerminal does

• Continuous 30-second polling of both venues with circuit breakers, retry, and freshness tracking.
• Precision-first matching — keyword similarity → FAISS candidate discovery → Claude LLM verification → entity extraction → framing-pattern taxonomy (17 patterns). False positives are treated as worse than misses.
• Fee-adjusted spreads with lifecycle tracking: DETECTED → CONFIRMED → STALE → EXPIRED.
• Historical P&L proof — every detected arb is tracked through settlement so the scoreboard is verifiable, not theoretical.

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✨ Features

🔍 Matching Pipeline

• Multi-tier matcher — keyword similarity, FAISS candidate discovery, Claude LLM verification, entity extraction.
• Framing pattern taxonomy — 17 patterns for complementary contracts and false-match rejection.
• Seed-list bootstrap for high-traffic recurring events (sports, elections, macro).
• Multi-leg decomposition for composite contracts.

💹 Arb Detection

• Fee-adjusted spreads across every venue pair carrying the same canonical event.
• Lifecycle tracking — DETECTED → CONFIRMED → STALE → EXPIRED.
• Confidence scoring with venue-pair trust multipliers.
• Settlement-risk indicator (green / yellow / red) based on resolution-criteria comparison.

📡 Live Dashboard

• SSE streaming arb feed — sub-second updates, no polling on the client.
• Sortable & filterable cards with venue deep links.
• Side-by-side pair comparison with historical spread charts (lightweight-charts).
• OHLC candlestick price charts per market.
• Category + full-text search across every matched event.
• Mobile-responsive terminal layout.

🧠 Market Intelligence

• Market regime bar — live VIX, BTC, S&P 500, and DXY as macro context.
• Correlated-asset ticker mapping — prediction market events auto-tagged with underlying tickers (e.g., BTC > $120K → BTCUSDT).
• Arb enrichment panel — TA summary (tradingview-ta), Reddit sentiment, and Google News headlines for the correlated underlying.
• News catalyst badges (Google News RSS) with click-through to the source.
• Volume breakout warnings — Binance + Yahoo Finance scans flag unusual underlying activity.
• GDELT news-heat signal — live article volume + top headline (GDELT 2.0 DOC API) over a 24h window, scored 0–100 per matched event; surfaces whether an arb is news-driven or stale.

🦈 MiroShark Integration (optional)

• One-click crowd-reaction simulation — trigger a MiroShark multi-agent simulation directly from any arb in the feed. The arb's event title, both venues' descriptions, prices, and active news catalyst are packaged as a document bundle and handed off via MiroShark's graph-build → simulation-create → start API chain.
• Live SSE progress stepper — 7-stage stepper (preparing, fetching catalyst, ontology, graph, sim, personas, start) streams updates from the backend; the final done event auto-opens the simulation in a new tab on MiroShark's own results UI.
• Idempotent — miroshark_sim_id is stored on the arb row, so repeat clicks deep-link to the existing simulation instead of wasting LLM work.

Local-dev only. The button is hidden in production unless MIROSHARK_URL (backend) and NEXT_PUBLIC_MIROSHARK_URL (frontend) are set, since MiroShark runs locally against its own LLM credits.

🎯 Trader's Toolkit

• Configurable alerts — in-app toasts + webhook delivery (Discord, Slack, generic JSON), 30-minute cooldown dedupe.
• Personal watchlist — anonymous session identity (no login), JSON export / import.
• Performance analytics — confidence calibration curves, venue-pair P&L breakdowns, category stats over configurable time ranges.
• Backtest conviction scoring — data-backed TA → prediction-market correlation per arb.

📜 Historical Proof

• Per-event P&L tracking through settlement.
• Immutable price-snapshot history (PostgreSQL, append-only, indexed).
• OHLC candle rollups and top-of-book depth capture (top 5 levels).

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🏗️ Architecture

Polymarket and Kalshi are polled asynchronously, normalized into a common schema, matched into canonical events, and streamed to the dashboard over SSE. Enrichment sources attach to each arb as a side branch.

graph LR
    subgraph Ingest["🛰️ Ingest (async httpx)"]
        P[Polymarket CLOB]
        K[Kalshi API<br/>RSA-signed]
    end

    subgraph Scheduler["⏱️ APScheduler"]
        PL[pricing_loop<br/>30s]
        ML[matching_loop<br/>15m]
    end

    subgraph Data["🗄️ PostgreSQL 16"]
        RM[raw_markets]
        CE[canonical_events]
        PS[price_snapshots]
        AO[arb_opportunities]
    end

    subgraph Matching["🧩 Matching Pipeline"]
        KW[keyword similarity]
        FA[FAISS embeddings<br/>all-MiniLM-L6-v2]
        LLM[Claude LLM<br/>verification]
        EE[entity extraction]
    end

    subgraph Enrich["🧠 Enrichment"]
        TV[TradingView TA]
        RD[Reddit sentiment]
        GN[Google News RSS]
        BY[Binance + Yahoo volume]
    end

    subgraph Frontend["💻 Next.js 16 Dashboard"]
        UI[Arb feed · Watchlist · Analytics]
    end

    subgraph Miro["🦈 MiroShark (local-only, optional)"]
        MS[Multi-agent simulation]
    end

    P --> RM
    K --> RM
    PL --> RM
    ML --> KW
    KW --> FA --> LLM --> EE --> CE
    RM --> PS
    CE --> AO
    PS --> AO

    TV -.-> UI
    RD -.-> UI
    GN -.-> UI
    BY -.-> UI

    AO -->|/api/arbs/stream SSE| UI
    CE -->|/api/events| UI

    UI -.->|POST + SSE<br/>optional| MS

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🚀 Quick Start

Prerequisites

• Docker & Docker Compose — for the one-command stack
• Python 3.12 — for backend-only development
• Node.js 20 — for frontend-only development

One-command local setup

git clone <repo-url> edgeterminal
cd edgeterminal
cp .env.example .env   # fill in KALSHI_KEY_ID, ANTHROPIC_API_KEY, etc.
docker compose up

Then open:

• Frontend → http://localhost:3000
• Backend → http://localhost:8000
• API docs → http://localhost:8000/docs

Required environment variables

| Variable | Purpose | |---|---| | DATABASE_URL | PostgreSQL async connection string (asyncpg) | | KALSHI_KEY_ID | Kalshi API key identifier | | KALSHI_PRIVATE_KEY_PATH | Path to RSA private key used for Kalshi request signing | | ANTHROPIC_API_KEY | Claude API key for LLM match verification | | POLLING_INTERVAL_SECONDS | Pricing-loop cadence (default: 30) | | MATCHING_INTERVAL_MINUTES | Matching-loop cadence (default: 15) | | NEXT_PUBLIC_API_URL