Polymarket arbitrage bot

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Advanced analytics and signal engine for prediction market trading on Polymarket.

(🌟click! so your polymarket account will be boosted)<a href="https://polymarket.com/?r=cryptoking1106"><img width="745" height="93" alt="image" src="https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/746d4631-5b96-4fe9-b955-afedf971256c" /></a>

Built for:

• arbitrage detection
• market inefficiency analysis
• real-time trading signals
• spread monitoring
• execution optimization
• automated trading workflows

The system continuously tracks market movements, liquidity, volatility, and pricing inefficiencies to identify high-probability trading opportunities across prediction markets.

Features

• Real-time arbitrage detection
• Smart trading signals
• Advanced analytics dashboard
• AI-assisted trade optimization
• Position and PnL tracking
• Risk management tools
• Telegram integration
• Automated execution support

Designed specifically for fast-moving prediction markets and high-frequency trading environments.

<img width="1917" height="893" alt="Screenshot 2026-05-18 031019" src="https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/f45c8109-6500-4c64-bb22-31297657f20e" /> <img width="1861" height="881" alt="Screenshot 2026-05-18 011706" src="https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/d46676ea-5f88-482e-91d4-e81aeef2f6df" /> <img width="1893" height="769" alt="Screenshot 2026-05-18 011723" src="https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/3cd99752-bc90-4bda-9c69-a1228251d1cb" /> ---

🟢 New Prediction Market Platform

Explore the new prediction market platform by GMGN:

Future News

Future News is a prediction market platform focused on trading real-world events with wallet-connected execution and real-time market data. <img width="1487" height="767" alt="image" src="https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/2a6555b2-18d8-44e7-908d-06b2a6e621e2" />

Quick start

Terminal 1 — dashboard

npm start

Open http://localhost:3847

Terminal 2 — paper bot

npm run demo

Edit config/demo-bot.json (your live settings). Use config/demo-bot.example.json as a conservative starter template.

| File | Purpose | |------|---------| | config/demo-bot.json | Active strategy + bankroll (what npm run demo loads) | | config/demo-bot.example.json | Example / reset template (lower risk defaults) | | data/demo-bot/state.json | Virtual balance, positions, trade history | | data/demo-bot/trades.log | Text log of bot decisions |

Reset virtual account: delete data/demo-bot/state.json and restart npm run demo.

Switch strategy

Set strategy.name in config/demo-bot.json and restart npm run demo.
All other strategy numbers are loaded automatically from config/strategies/<name>.json (e.g. btc_and_odds → btc-and-odds.json).

Override any single field in demo-bot.json if you want (preset + your value wins):

"strategy": {
  "name": "btc_or_odds",
  "betSizeUsdc": 15
}

Trade only Up or only Down (tradeLeg applies to every strategy):

| tradeLeg | Effect | |------------|--------| | "both" (default) | Buy Up or Down when conditions pass | | "up" | Only enter Up; Down signals → HOLD | | "down" | Only enter Down; Up signals → HOLD |

"strategy": {
  "name": "btc_and_odds",
  "tradeLeg": "down"
}

For btc_and_odds, Up needs BTC ≥ beat + $threshold and Up odds ≥ min; Down needs BTC ≤ beat − threshold and Down odds ≥ min.

Down not trading? Common causes:

1. Old Up position still open — bot shows HOLD (holding_position) and pos U:34. Restart after fix, or delete data/demo-bot/state.json. Stale positions are auto-settled on start.
2. BTC not far enough below beat — e.g. Δ −$9 with Down 89% fails if minBtcDeltaUsd: 15. Lower to 10 or set "btcSignOnly": true (only need BTC below beat, not $15).
3. Down odds > maxEntryOddsPct — e.g. Down 96% with max 88 → odds_too_high.
4. Outside entry window — minSecondsIntoWindow: 200 = only last ~100s of the 5m window.

| strategy.name | Buys Up when… | Buys Down when… | Typical use | |-----------------|---------------|-----------------|-------------| | btc_momentum (default) | BTC ≥ beat + $threshold, or BTC above beat + Up odds ≥ min | BTC ≤ beat − threshold, or BTC below beat + Down odds ≥ min | Trend + aligned odds (respectBtcOnOddsFallback) | | odds_favorite | Up is market favorite (≥ minFavoriteOddsPct) | Down is favorite | Ignore BTC; follow Polymarket price | | btc_and_odds | BTC ≥ +threshold and Up odds ≥ min | BTC ≤ −threshold and Down odds ≥ min | Stricter — both must agree | | btc_or_odds | BTC ≥ +threshold or Up favorite | BTC ≤ −threshold or Down favorite | More entries than momentum | | contrarian | Down cheap when Up very expensive | Up cheap when Down very expensive | Fade extremes (minContrarianFavoritePct, maxUnderdogOddsPct) | | btc_mean_revert | BTC below beat by $threshold (fade Down) | BTC above beat by $threshold (fade Up) | Bet snap-back before close |

Preset JSON blocks (copy strategy into demo-bot.json):

• config/strategies/odds-favorite.json
• config/strategies/btc-or-odds.json
• config/strategies/btc-and-odds.json
• config/strategies/contrarian.json
• config/strategies/btc-mean-revert.json

Extra fields by strategy

| Field | Used by | |-------|---------| | side, respectBtcOnOddsFallback | btc_momentum only | | minFavoriteOddsPct | momentum fallback, odds_favorite, btc_and_odds, btc_or_odds | | minBtcDeltaUsd | all BTC-based strategies | | minContrarianFavoritePct, maxUnderdogOddsPct | contrarian only | | minEntryOddsPct | optional floor on entry price (any strategy) |

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Your active config (config/demo-bot.json)

This is the file the bot reads today:

{
  "mode": "paper",
  "startingBalanceUsdc": 1000,
  "pollIntervalMs": 5000,
  "stateFile": "data/demo-bot/state.json",
  "logFile": "data/demo-bot/trades.log",
  "dashboard": {
    "enabled": true,
    "label": "Demo Bot",
    "address": "0x000000000000000000000000000000000000d30b",
    "color": "#22c55e"
  },
  "strategy": {
    "name": "btc_momentum",
    "side": "follow_btc",
    "betSizeUsdc": 25,
    "maxBetsPerWindow": 1,
    "minSecondsIntoWindow": 45,
    "maxSecondsIntoWindow": 270,
    "minBtcDeltaUsd": 20,
    "minFavoriteOddsPct": 72,
    "maxEntryOddsPct": 95,
    "takeProfitOddsPct": 100,
    "stopLossOddsPct": 0,
    "respectBtcOnOddsFallback": true
  }
}

What this preset does

| Setting | Value | Effect | |---------|-------|--------| | side | follow_btc | Buy Up/Down from BTC vs price-to-beat; use odds only if BTC is flat | | minBtcDeltaUsd | 20 | Need ≥ $20 above/below beat for a BTC signal | | minFavoriteOddsPct | 72 | Odds fallback only if favorite is ≥ 72% (strong market agreement) | | maxEntryOddsPct | 95 | Can enter up to 95¢ — late, high-confidence entries only | | takeProfitOddsPct | 100 | Almost never take profit early (odds must hit 100%) | | stopLossOddsPct | 0 | Almost never stop out early (only if odds ≤ 0%) | | maxBetsPerWindow | 1 | One paper buy per 5m window | | betSizeUsdc | 25 | $25 virtual per entry |

In practice: entries need a clear BTC move or very one-sided odds (72%+). After buying, the bot usually holds until window settlement ($1 / $0 per share), not scalping TP/SL. Good for testing “bet the favorite and ride to close.”

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Strategy: btc_momentum

Idea: In each 5-minute window, if BTC is clearly above or below the window’s price to beat, buy the side that should win (Up or Down). Optionally exit early on odds (take profit / stop loss); otherwise hold until settlement.

This is for testing — not financial advice.

What the market is

• Each window is 5 minutes.
• Price to beat = BTC at window open (Binance proxy; Polymarket uses Chainlink).
• At window end: Up pays $1/share if BTC ≥ beat; Down pays $1/share if BTC < beat.
• While the window is open, share prices move between ~0¢ and ~100¢ (shown as % on the dashboard).

Signal: which side to buy

Controlled by strategy.side:

| Value | Behavior | |-------|----------| | follow_btc | Prefer BTC vs beat; if unclear, use odds | | follow_odds | Use whichever side has higher implied probability |

follow_btc rules

1. btcDelta = current BTC − price to beat
2. If btcDelta ≥ minBtcDeltaUsd → target Up
3. If btcDelta ≤ −minBtcDeltaUsd → target Down
4. Otherwise fall back to odds — only the side that matches BTC direction:
   • BTC above beat → may buy Up if upPct ≥ minFavoriteOddsPct
   • BTC below beat → may buy Down if downPct ≥ minFavoriteOddsPct
   • Will not buy Up on a negative delta just because Up is 60% (that was the old bug)

Set respectBtcOnOddsFallback: false to use pure odds favorite again.

follow_odds rules

• Pick Up if upPct ≥ minFavoriteOddsPct and Up ≥ Down
• Pick Down if downPct ≥ minFavoriteOddsPct and Down ≥ Up
• Otherwise no entry (no_clear_signal)

Decision flow (each poll)

The bot wakes every pollIntervalMs (default 5s):

flowchart TD
  A[Poll live window] --> B{Less than 15s left?}
  B -->|yes| HOLD1[HOLD: too close to end]
  B -->|no| C{Open position?}
  C -->|yes| D{Odds >= takeProfitOddsPct?}
  D -->|yes| SELL1[SELL: take profit]
  D -->|no| E{Odds <= stopLossOddsPct?}
  E -->|yes| SELL2[SELL: stop loss]
  E -->|no| HOLD2[HOLD: hold to settlement]
  C -->|no| F{In entry time window?}
  F -->|too early| HOLD3[HOLD: warmup]
  F -->|too late| HOLD4[HOLD: past entry window]
  F -->|ok| G{Max bets reached?}
  G -->|yes| HOLD5[HOLD: max bets]
  G -->|no| H{Clear signal?}
  H -->|no| HOLD6[HOLD: no signal]
  H -->|yes| I{Entry odds <= maxEntryO