premise

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PRospective EnvironMental Impact AsSEssment

Coupling the ecoinvent database with projections from Integrated Assessment Models (IAM)

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premise is a Python tool for prospective life cycle assessment. It allows users to project the ecoinvent 3 database into the future, using scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). It does so by modifying the ecoinvent database to reflect projected energy policy trajectories, include emerging technologies, modify market shares as well as technologies' efficiency.

In practice, premise updates selected sectors and markets (e.g., energy supply, transport, fuels, industrial processes) while leaving other parts of the database unchanged unless explicitly mapped. Results are scenario- and model-specific, and depend on the IAM model, scenario, year, and the ecoinvent version used.

Among others, it can be used to assess the environmental impacts of future energy systems, and to compare different energy policies. It includes a set of IAM scenarios and a set of tools to create custom scenarios.

The tool was designed to be user-friendly and to allow for reproducible results. While it is built on the brightway framework, its outputs can naturally be used in Activity Browser, but also in other LCA software, such as SimaPro, OpenLCA, or directly in Python.

The tool is described in the following scientific publication: Sacchi et al, 2022. If this tool helps you in your research, please consider citing this publication.

Also, use the following references to cite the scenarios used with the tool:

• REMIND and REMIND-EU scenarios: Baumstark et al. REMIND2.1: transformation and innovation dynamics of the energy-economic system within climate and sustainability limits, Geoscientific Model Development, 2021.
• IMAGE scenarios: Stehfest, Elke, et al. Integrated assessment of global environmental change with IMAGE 3.0: Model description and policy applications. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), 2014.
• TIAM-UCL scenarios: Pye, S., et al. The TIAM-UCL Model (Version 4.1.1) Documentation, 2020.
• MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM-GAINS scenarios: Daniel Huppmann, Matthew Gidden, Oliver Fricko, Peter Kolp, Clara Orthofer, Michael Pimmer, Nikolay Kushin, Adriano Vinca, Alessio Mastrucci, Keywan Riahi, Volker Krey, The MESSAGEix Integrated Assessment Model and the ix modeling platform (ixmp): An open framework for integrated and cross-cutting analysis of energy, climate, the environment, and sustainable development, Environmental Modelling & Software, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.11.012.
• GCAM scenarios: Calvin, K., et al. GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 677–698, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019, 2019.

Models

The tool currently supports the following IAMs:

| Model | Description | |-------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | REMIND v.3.5.2 | REMIND (Regionalized Model of Investment and Development) is an integrated assessment model that combines macroeconomic growth, energy system, and climate policy analysis. It is designed to analyze long-term energy transition pathways, accounting for technological, economic, and environmental factors. REMIND simulates how regions invest in different technologies and energy resources to balance economic growth and climate targets, while considering factors like energy efficiency, emissions, and resource availability. The model is particularly strong in its detailed representation of energy markets and macroeconomic interactions across regions, making it valuable for global climate policy assessments. | | REMIND-EU v.3.5.2 | REMIND-EU is a regionalized version of the REMIND model that further subdivides the European region into 8 geographies (France, Germany, Portugal-Spain, etc.). It allows for more detailed analysis of energy transition pathways and climate policies within Europe, considering regional differences in energy resources, technologies, and socio-economic conditions. This model is particularly useful for assessing the impacts of European Union policies on energy systems and climate change mitigation. | | IMAGE v3.4 | IMAGE (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) is a comprehensive IAM developed to explore the interactions between human development, energy consumption, and environmental systems over the long term. It focuses on assessing how land use, food systems, energy systems, and climate change interact under different policy scenarios. The model integrates biophysical processes, such as land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions, with socio-economic drivers like population growth and economic development. IMAGE is commonly used for analyzing sustainable development strategies, climate impacts, biodiversity loss, and exploring mitigation and adaptation options. | | TIAM-UCL v.4.1 | TIAM-UCL (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model by University College London) is a global energy system model based on the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) framework, developed to evaluate long-term decarbonization pathways for global energy systems. It provides detailed insights into energy technology options, resource availability, and emission reduction strategies under various climate policy scenarios. The model focuses on the trade-offs and synergies between energy security, economic costs, and environmental outcomes. TIAM-UCL is frequently used to analyze scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement and examine technological innovation's role in mitigating climate change globally. | | MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM-GAINS 2.1-M-R12 | MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM-GAINS (MESSAGE) is an integrated assessment model that couples the MESSAGEix energy system with the GLOBIOM land-use model and GAINS air-pollution module. It is used to explore long-term energy and land-use transitions and their climate and air-quality implications under different policy scenarios. | | GCAM v.8.2 | GCAM (Global Change Analysis Model) is an integrated assessment model that simulates the interactions between energy, water, land use, climate, and economic systems on a global scale. It is designed to analyze how different policy scenarios, technological developments, and socio-economic factors influence greenhouse gas emissions, energy production and consumption, land use changes, and climate outcomes. GCAM incorporates detailed representations of energy technologies, agricultural systems, and land-use dynamics, allowing for comprehensive assessments of mitigation strategies and their implications for sustainable development. The model is widely used for exploring pathways to achieve climate targets while considering trade-offs across multiple sectors. |