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name: meta-ads-analyzer description: Diagnose Meta Ads campaign performance and account gaps using Meta's actual system mechanics — including customer-journey coverage, Breakdown Effect, Learning Phase, Auction Overlap, Pacing, and Creative Fatigue. Use for performance diagnosis, account audits, full-funnel or TOF/MOF/BOF gap analysis, deciding what to test or create next, and producing novice-friendly recommendations without forcing every campaign or ad into a funnel stage.

Meta Ads Analyzer

Most "Meta Ads analysis" stops at "this CPA is high, pause it." That's wrong more often than it's right. Meta's delivery system optimizes for marginal efficiency — the cost of the next conversion — not average efficiency across a snapshot. A segment with a higher average CPA is often the one keeping your overall campaign cheap. Pausing it makes things worse.

This skill diagnoses Meta campaigns the way a senior media buyer would: at the right evaluation level, accounting for learning state, separating noise from signal, and explaining why the system is making the decisions it's making before recommending any change. It can also audit whether the account supports the complete customer journey without assuming that TOF, MOF, and BOF must be separate campaigns.

Core principle: Holistic first, then drill down. Marginal over average. Customer-journey coverage over rigid funnel structure. Dynamic over static. Every recommendation is a testable hypothesis with expected impact, not a directive.

For account audits, full-funnel reviews, or questions about what is missing, read and apply references/customer-journey-coverage.md before analyzing the account.

When to Use

• "Analyze my Meta Ads campaign performance"
• "Why is the system spending more on the higher-CPA placement?"
• "Diagnose what's wrong with this ad set"
• "Should I pause this audience / placement / ad?"
• "My CPA jumped — is this normal or a real problem?"
• "Audit this campaign before I scale budget"
• "I exported my Meta data — what does it actually mean?"
• "Audit my Meta ad account and tell me what is missing"
• "Do I have enough TOF, MOF, and BOF coverage?"
• "Why are customers not moving through the funnel?"
• "What ads should I create next?"

Phase 0: Intake

1. Campaign data — One of:
   • CSV export from Meta Ads Manager (Campaign / Ad Set / Ad level + breakdowns)
   • Pasted performance table
   • Screenshots (we'll extract the metrics)
   • Live data via your existing Meta Marketing API connection
2. Campaign setup:
   • Objective (Awareness / Traffic / Engagement / Lead Gen / Conversions / Sales / App Installs)
   • Budget type (Advantage+ Campaign Budget = CBO, or Ad Set Budget = ABO)
   • Placements (Automatic vs. manual)
   • Number of ad sets and ads
3. Time period — Date range covered, with any known events (creative refresh, budget change, audience edit, account issue)
4. Target metrics — CPA target, ROAS target, or "no target — benchmark me"
5. Funnel context (if relevant) — On-platform conversion vs. website event vs. downstream qualification rate
6. What's making you ask? — Specific concern ("CPA up 40%"), routine review, or pre-scale audit
7. Account coverage evidence (for account/funnel audits, when available):
   • Campaign objective, optimization event, and attribution setting
   • Audience strategy, exclusions, and retargeting windows
   • Creative format, message, proof, offer, and landing-page destination
   • Pixel/CAPI and relevant conversion-event health
   • Campaign, ad-set, and ad-level spend and results
8. Report style — guided by default; use expert when the user asks for technical detail or demonstrates strong media-buying knowledge

Do not block when some coverage fields are absent. Record what is missing, lower confidence, and distinguish "no evidence available" from "the account has no coverage."

Phase 1: Identify the Correct Evaluation Level

This is the most important step. Evaluating at the wrong level is the #1 source of wrong recommendations.

| Campaign Setup | Correct Evaluation Level | Why | |---|---|---| | Advantage+ Campaign Budget (CBO) | Campaign level | System pools budget across ad sets — only campaign totals reflect reality | | Automatic placements (no CBO) | Ad Set level | System pools budget across placements within the ad set | | Multiple ads in 1 ad set | Ad Set level | System pools delivery across ads | | Manual placements + ABO | Placement / Ad Set level | Each is independent |

Output for this phase: State the evaluation level explicitly and explain why before any metric is interpreted.

If asked "is this Meta placement underperforming?" on a CBO campaign, the answer is "wrong question — at CBO the placement-level CPA is misleading. Here's the campaign total..."

Phase 2: Check Learning Phase Status

Before judging anything, check delivery state per ad set.

Learning state checklist:

• Status is Learning (delivery less stable, CPA typically higher, results not predictive)
• Exits after ~50 optimization events within 7 days of last significant edit
• Shops ads exception: 17 website purchases + 5 Meta purchases
• Status Learning Limited = can't get enough events → flag as a structural issue, not a performance issue

Significant edits that reset learning:

• Targeting changes
• Optimization event change
• Creative changes (large)
• Bid strategy / amount changes
• Budget changes >20%

Output for this phase: Per ad set, mark Active / Learning / Learning Limited. Caveat all conclusions for anything in learning. Do not recommend pausing a Learning ad set based on CPA alone.

Phase 3: Diagnose with Meta-Specific Lenses

Run the diagnosis through these six lenses. Each one explains a different class of "weird" behavior.

3A: Marginal Efficiency Analysis (Breakdown Effect)

The Breakdown Effect: the system shifts budget toward segments where the next conversion is cheapest, not where the average conversion is cheapest. A segment can have a high average CPA in a breakdown report and still be the right place for budget.

How to spot it:

• Time-series the segment's CPA. If marginal CPA is rising sharply, expect the system to shift budget out — even if average looks fine.
• A breakdown row with high average CPA + high spend usually means the system found cheap marginal conversions there earlier in the period.

Mandatory framing in the report: Never recommend pausing a segment based solely on higher average CPA/CPM in a breakdown report. Removing it will often raise total cost. Frame any cut as a hypothesis to test with a holdout, not an instruction.

3B: Ad Relevance Diagnostics

For each ad with sufficient impressions (~500+), check the three rankings:

| Ranking | Below Average → | Action | |---|---|---| | Quality Ranking | Creative is the problem | Test new creative formats / hooks | | Engagement Rate Ranking | Hook isn't pulling | Test new opener / first 3 seconds | | Conversion Rate Ranking | Post-click is leaking | Check the landing page against the ad (use analyze-performance) |

Two below average + one average = creative refresh. All three below average = scrap and rebuild.

3C: Auction Overlap Check

Symptoms: ad sets in the same campaign chronically Learning Limited, underspending budget, or showing erratic delivery.

Causes: Overlapping audiences within the same ad account / Page mean only one of your ads enters each auction (Meta picks the highest-value one; the others are excluded — you don't bid against yourself, but the suppressed ad sets can't learn).

Action:

• Run Account Overview → Opportunity Score for explicit overlap flags
• Combine similar ad sets (consolidate learning) or pause the weaker overlapping ones

3D: Pacing Analysis

Pacing = the system smoothing budget across the day/period to capture the best opportunities. Daily snapshots will look uneven by design.

How to read it:

• Evaluate spend over the full campaign window, not single days
• If the system is consistently underspending budget, that's a pacing/learning issue, not a "good thrift" — usually points to overlap, narrow audience, or bid-strategy mismatch
• Ignore "$X budget unspent today" alarms unless sustained over 3+ days

3E: Performance Fluctuation Assessment

Distinguish noise from trend before recommending anything.

| Signal | Verdict | |---|---| | Day-to-day CPA swing within 20–30% | Normal — ignore | | Weekend vs. weekday delta | Normal — control for it | | Gradual change over weeks | Trend — investigate | | Sudden ≥50% cost increase sustained 3+ days | Real problem — diagnose | | Delivery near zero | Account/asset/policy issue — check first | | Conv rate dropping while spend rises | Creative fatigue or LP regression |

Always check sample size. A 1-conversion difference at low volume is meaningless.

3F: Customer-Journey Coverage Audit

Run this lens for account audits, full-funnel reviews, requests about TOF/MOF/BOF, or questions about what to create next. Follow references/customer-journey-coverage.md.

Start by identifying whether the account is consolidated, funnel-segmented, hybrid, or unclear. Then evaluate whether the account supports these customer jobs:

• Create demand — reach and persuade potential new customers
• Build consideration — educate, demonstrate, establish proof, and answer comparisons
• Convert intent — remove objections, present the offer, and help high-intent customers act

Campaigns and ads are evidence for the coverage map; they are not objects that must each receive one TOF/MOF/BOF label. One campaign or creative may support multiple customer jobs. Only make a stage-specific claim when the audience, message, offer, destination, or optimization event supports it.

Identify gaps in coverage, messaging, handoffs, delivery, or measurement. Do not report a missing stage merely because there is no campaign named after that stage, and do not recommend splitting a consolidated campaign unless the evidence shows a specific problem that separation would test.

Phase 4: Synthesize Through the Breakdown Effect Lens

Before writing the report, restate every performance finding from Phase 3 in terms of what the system is trying to do:

"Placement A shows $10 average CPA vs Placement B's $15. Time-series shows A's CPA rising. The system is correctly shifting toward B because B's marginal CPA is now lower. Recommendation: do nothing on placements; test new creative in A to lower its marginal CPA."

If a performance finding can't be restated in marginal/system-mechanics terms, it's probably noise — drop it. For coverage findings, require evidence from the customer journey and state confidence explicitly.

Phase 5: Generate the Report

Use this exact structure. No deviation.

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
   - 2–3 sentences on overall health
   - Top 1 thing to do, top 1 thing NOT to do

2. EVALUATION LEVEL
   - Stated explicitly with the reason

3. LEARNING STATUS
   - Per-ad-set table: Active / Learning / Learning Limited
   - Caveats applied to any in-learning analysis

4. PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
   - Standardized metric naming (see table below)
   - Aggregate first, then drill-down
   - Compare to target where given, benchmarks otherwise

5. CUSTOMER-JOURNEY COVERAGE (include for account/funnel audits)
   - Account model: Consolidated / Funnel-segmented / Hybrid / Unclear
   - Table: Customer job / What exists / Gap or no gap / Evidence / Confidence / Next test
   - Customer jobs: Create demand / Build consideration / Convert intent
   - One campaign or ad may support multiple jobs
   - Never infer a gap from campaign names alone

6. DIAGNOSIS
   - Findings from Phase 3, each tagged to its lens
     (Marginal / Relevance / Overlap / Pacing / Fluctuation / Coverage)