<img src="assets/oracle3-banner.svg" alt="Oracle3" width="600"> <h1 align="center">Oracle3</h1> Autonomous On-Chain Trading Agent for Prediction Markets <a href="https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3/actions"><img src="https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3/actions/workflows/pytest.yml/badge.svg" alt="Tests"></a> <a href="https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3/actions"><img src="https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3/actions/workflows/ruff.yml/badge.svg" alt="Lint"></a> <a href="https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3/actions"><img src="https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3/actions/workflows/mypy.yml/badge.svg" alt="Type Check"></a> <img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/python-3.10%2B-blue?logo=python&logoColor=white" alt="Python"> <img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/solana-mainnet--beta-9945FF?logo=solana&logoColor=white" alt="Solana"> <img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/license-Apache%202.0-green" alt="License"> <a href="https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3/releases"><img src="https://img.shields.io/github/v/release/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3?color=orange" alt="Release"></a> A fully autonomous agent that reads on-chain data, exploits structural mispricings across prediction markets, signs Solana transactions, and manages risk end-to-end — no human in the loop.

<img src="assets/dashboard-live.png" alt="Oracle3 Live Dashboard" width="800"> Live trading dashboard — real-time equity curve, execution pipeline, 8 on-chain agent capabilities

What's New

| Date | Update | |------|--------| | 2026-03-09 | v1.0.0 released — 8 arbitrage strategies, market relation graph, SpreadExecutor, engine control | | 2026-03-04 | Live trading dashboard with real-time equity curve and 8 on-chain feature cards | | 2026-02-28 | Initial release — trading engine, multi-exchange support, AI agent strategies |

Key Features

8 arbitrage strategies — 6 constraint-based (cross-market, exclusivity, implication, conditional, event-sum, structural) + 2 statistical (cointegration spread, lead-lag) with formal mathematical invariants
Multi-exchange — Solana/DFlow, Polymarket, Kalshi with cross-platform arbitrage
AI + Quant hybrid — LLM agent strategies (OpenAI Agents SDK + LiteLLM) alongside adaptive quantitative strategies
On-chain execution — native Solana tx signing, Jito MEV protection, flash loan arbitrage, atomic multi-leg trades
Safe multi-leg — SpreadExecutor with automatic LIFO unwind on partial fills; no naked positions
Market relation graph — persistent knowledge graph with quantitative validation (cointegration, ADF, hedge ratio)
Dual-layer risk — local limits + Solana simulateTransaction pre-flight check
On-chain audit trail — every trade logged via Memo program + agent reputation scoring (0–100)
Engine control — Unix socket runtime control (pause/resume/killswitch) without process restart
Live dashboard — web UI with equity curve, 8 feature cards, execution pipeline + terminal TUI

Architecture

                    ┌───────────────────────────────────────────────┐
                    │              Oracle3 CLI                      │
                    │   paper │ live │ blinks │ monitor │ control   │
                    └───────────────────┬───────────────────────────┘
                                        │
          ┌─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┐
          │                             │                             │
 ┌────────▼────────┐         ┌──────────▼──────────┐       ┌─────────▼─────────┐
 │  Agent Strategy │         │   Quant Strategy    │       │ Arbitrage Suite   │
 │  (LLM + Tools)  │         │  (Momentum/MR/MM)   │       │ (8 strategies)    │
 └────────┬────────┘         └──────────┬──────────┘       └─────────┬─────────┘
          └─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┘
                                        │
                    ┌───────────────────▼───────────────────────────┐
                    │             Trading Engine                    │
                    │  Event Loop • Risk Manager • Position Tracker │
                    │  SpreadExecutor • Control Server • Registry   │
                    └───────────────────┬───────────────────────────┘
                                        │
          ┌─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┐
          │                             │                             │
 ┌────────▼────────┐         ┌──────────▼──────────┐       ┌─────────▼─────────┐
 │  Solana / DFlow │         │    Polymarket       │       │      Kalshi       │
 │  SPL Tokens     │         │    CLOB API         │       │    REST API       │
 └────────┬────────┘         └─────────────────────┘       └───────────────────┘
          │
 ┌────────▼────────┐
 │  Solana Blinks  │  ← Shareable trade URLs
 │  On-Chain Logs  │  ← Memo program audit trail
 │  Jito Bundles   │  ← MEV protection
 └─────────────────┘

Arbitrage Strategies

Constraint-Based

| Strategy | Invariant | Entry Signal | |----------|-----------|--------------| | Cross-Market Arb | Same event, same price | Price gap across DFlow/Polymarket/Kalshi exceeds fees | | Exclusivity Arb | P(A) + P(B) ≤ 1 | Mutually exclusive event prices sum > 1 | | Implication Arb | P(A) ≤ P(B) | Implied event priced higher than parent | | Conditional Arb | P(A|B) ∈ [L, U] | Conditional probability bounds violated | | Event Sum Arb | Σ P(outcome) = 1 | Outcome prices don't sum to 1 | | Structural Arb | P(A) = β·P(B) + α | Price deviates from calibrated model |

Statistical

| Strategy | Method | Edge Source | |----------|--------|------------| | Cointegration Spread | Self-calibrating z-score bands | Mean-reverting spread between cointegrated markets | | Lead-Lag | Rolling cross-correlation | Follower market lags leader's price movements |

Every strategy uses a position state machine, fee-aware edge calculation, cooldown windows, and fill-guarded transitions. See Architecture docs for details.

Quick Start

git clone https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3.git
cd oracle3
poetry install

# Browse markets
oracle3 market list --exchange solana --limit 10

# Paper trading with live dashboard
oracle3 dashboard --exchange solana \
  --strategy-ref oracle3.strategy.contrib.adaptive_onchain_strategy:AdaptiveOnChainStrategy \
  --initial-capital 10000

# Run the interactive demo
./demo.sh

Open http://localhost:3000/live for the live dashboard. See Quick Start Guide for more commands.

Why Oracle3?

| Feature | Oracle3 | Polymarket/agents | freqtrade | |---------|---------|-------------------|-----------| | Prediction markets | 3 exchanges | Polymarket only | Crypto spot/futures | | Constraint arbitrage | 8 strategies with formal invariants | None | None | | On-chain atomic execution | Solana native | Off-chain | Off-chain | | LLM agent + quant hybrid | OpenAI Agents SDK + LiteLLM | RAG pipeline | FreqAI (ML) | | Multi-leg auto-unwind | SpreadExecutor (LIFO) | None | None | | MEV protection | Jito Bundles | N/A | N/A | | On-chain audit trail | Solana Memo program | None | None |

Motivation

On-chain autonomous agents represent the next evolution of crypto infrastructure. Oracle3 is a reference architecture for unifying LLM reasoning, quantitative signals, constraint-based arbitrage, and on-chain primitives into a single autonomous system. Prediction markets are the sharpest testbed — discrete outcomes, transparent order books, and probability axioms that create mathematically guaranteed arbitrage when prices misbehave.

Community

Discussions · Issues · Contributing · Security · Docs

License

Apache 2.0 — see LICENSE for details.

This software is for research and educational purposes. Trading on prediction markets involves financial risk.

Oracle3

Install / Use

README