tjboudreaux

Use when search or investigation could run forever. Set an explicit good-enough threshold first, then stop at the first option that clears it.

Use when a specific claim may lack grounding. Check evidence boundary, size wrongness cost, then answer, fetch, or abstain — never confabulate.

Under genuine uncertainty with no reliable forecast, inventory means, cap downside at affordable loss, act for commitments, and let goals emerge from controllable moves.

When a fault is localized and the proximate cause is known but the systemic root is not, chain evidence-linked whys with a counterfactual stop and a countermeasure.

Deciding what to build or why adoption fails. Recover the progress users hire a solution for under a circumstance, then rank by outcome and competing workarounds.

Use when a selective defect needs IS/IS-NOT difference analysis or a consequential option choice needs must/want weighting and adverse-consequence comparison.

When a claim, doc, test, metric, or assumption conflicts with observed behavior, stop theorizing from the map and verify the live code or data; let territory overrule.

When one mental model leaves a material blind spot on a multi-domain or high-stakes problem, sequence complementary models with named roles and a conflict rule.

When unsure which thinking skill fits, map domain and problem type, then return NONE or one primary skill by default (at most three complementary).

Use under time pressure when the situation is still changing and you must act before certainty — cycle Observe→Orient→Decide→Act on ~70% confidence, then re-observe.

Before committing scarce time, people, or money, name the best forgone use of those resources and the value delta of the chosen path versus that alternative.

Use when forecasting, estimating, or sizing risk — anchor on base rates, give ranges, update prior→likelihood→posterior on evidence, and factor unmeasured quantities into order-of-magnitude bounds.

Before heavy deliberation, classify the decision as cheap or costly to undo; decide two-way doors fast and stage one-way doors to preserve options.

When a symptom has several plausible causes, rank falsifiable hypotheses and run the cheapest discriminating observation first; prefer least-assumptive survivors only after evidence fit.

When a change has effects past the immediate fix—incentives, scale, feedback—trace consequence chains with timing and probability before committing.

When a request is vague, assumption-laden, or "obvious," ask the few load-bearing questions that expose hidden requirements before building or committing.

Before rejecting a proposal or reflexively agreeing, build the strongest faithful opposing case, state agreement conditions, then update or reaffirm.

When behavior is emergent across components—fixes elsewhere break, loops/delays dominate—map boundary, stocks/flows, feedback, archetypes, then rank leverage.

When a real test is too rare, large, or irreversible, run a controlled counterfactual: isolate one variable, fix conditions, trace the mechanistic chain, and bound what the result implies.

When two design requirements seem mutually exclusive, name the contradiction, separate conflicting states, then invent a concrete no-compromise resolution.

When the right response mode is unclear, classify the cause-effect domain first; decompose disorder.